Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-19 55.632324 61.883355 68.980212 77.731783 88.374197 101.088350 117.733273
2025-01-26 49.048789 57.600689 68.233504 82.824342 103.029107 131.249530 176.293274
2025-02-02 45.595676 55.557388 68.758601 88.383076 118.573630 167.065002 261.884103
2025-02-09 42.011670 52.502963 67.042521 89.968177 128.267045 197.564949 362.688365
2025-02-16 38.684626 49.237855 64.352267 89.277128 133.748835 222.879041 480.447305
2025-02-23 36.001670 46.515009 61.988882 88.501701 138.655725 249.399793 643.581589
2025-03-02 33.431462 43.670265 59.046978 86.166056 139.866031 268.334993 825.112778
2025-03-09 31.396323 41.422814 56.761797 84.555317 142.065128 291.290408 1104.756414
2025-03-16 29.090531 38.583913 53.251218 80.218675 137.391648 292.845258 1277.017605
2025-03-23 28.544791 38.386083 53.990806 83.827320 151.471087 362.377759 2671.465928
2025-03-30 27.262353 36.935916 52.493372 82.894645 154.532396 397.622263 4670.984916
2025-04-06 25.996803 35.427779 50.765293 81.262747 155.429878 426.089950 8832.576785
2025-04-13 24.381796 33.333748 47.982101 77.392548 150.202989 427.498276 14146.848294
2025-04-20 24.239771 33.612327 49.374238 82.437210 171.402712 592.204730 NaN
2025-04-27 24.127130 33.921304 50.842985 87.954080 197.161984 875.554465 NaN
2025-05-04 23.508358 33.332336 50.591673 89.526989 211.134908 1145.331781 NaN
2025-05-11 22.677459 32.327966 49.465112 88.841270 216.846562 1372.144345 NaN
2025-05-18 21.904481 31.378982 48.368533 88.071796 222.113451 1655.413171 NaN
2025-05-25 21.023734 30.197995 46.737636 85.753899 220.321065 1818.193024 NaN
2025-06-01 20.280448 29.223018 45.448171 84.155240 221.171119 2088.598152 NaN
2025-06-08 19.303999 27.799801 43.196289 79.850463 208.975273 1922.782227 NaN
2025-06-15 19.185450 27.882237 43.936033 83.432659 233.914479 3527.355997 NaN
2025-06-22 18.636091 27.170911 43.028792 82.506885 237.366209 4530.480259 NaN